Will Cubbie Long Balls Overshadow Dip in Starting Pitching?

By Craig Ganek
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Derek Lee (left) and Aramis Ramirez are as solid as any corner infield
tandem in baseball (Photo by Oscar Lopez)

The inaugural season for Lou Piniella had more twists-n-turns than Matt Murton trying to track a golf-shot in the afternoon sun. With the Cubs trailing the Brewers by almost ten games before July, shifting Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones, & Mark DeRosa around the outfield, deciding the LSU youngsters could be the needed mid-season spark, and watching Michael Barrett utilize his face as punching-bag, the Wrigleyville faithful witnessed a surreal season and began believing in the legend that is Sweet Lou.

For all the drama and player movement that accompanied 2007, the Cubs consistent starting rotation and the emergence of Carlos Marmol enabled Piniella to experiment with the daily line-up. Ranked 2nd in the NL in ERA and leading the majors in strikeouts, the pitching staff actually made-up for an unexpected power shortage in the middle of the line-up and gave the new headmaster an opportunity to convince management they needed another corner outfielder to ensure success in ‘08…welcome to Chi-Town Mr. Fukudome.

As for prognosticating the most ballyhooed National League squad in the land, it’s a simple equation…will the Cubs improved power numbers make-up for the slide in consistent starting pitching. As for the answer, let’s take a look:

RELYING ON THE LONG BALL
For all the passionate talk about “Small Ball” from managers, nothing has brought more playoff births than the “Long Ball” over the last 15 years. With Derrek Lee a full year removed from an awful wrist injury and looking to regain his 2003-05 magic (averaged 36 HRs/year), Alfonso Soriano playing the least amount of games (135) since 2001 and still managing 31 HRs, and Aramis Rameriz having his 1st season under 31 dingers since 2004, I expect the three to combine for 100 HRs and close to 300 RBIs. Throw-in the power from newcomer Kosuke Fukudome behind the Big Three (Buzz projections: 20-25 HRs) and the bottom of the order power from youngster Geovany Soto (Buzz projections: 20-25 HRs), and the Cubs will have plenty of confidence late in games to comeback from any deficit. And with a starting staff that can’t possibly match last season’s unexpected success…they’ll need it.

STARTING STAFF DROPS BACK TO MIDDLE OF THE PACK
While last year was dream season for many of the Cubbie starters outside of Carlos Zambrano (18-13, 3.95), the baseball gods are known to be ruthless to those the year following unexpected success. In his first season in the NL since 1999, the 32 year-old Ted Lilly finished the year 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA, which was impressive considering the lefty was only a game over .500 in a 160 career starts prior with an ERA close to 4.60. Even more impressive than Lilly’s improvement was Jason Marquis’s rebound from a horrible 2006 with the Cardinals (14-16, 6.02) as the righty opened the season on fire and finished with a respectable 12-9, 4.60 ERA. Unfortunately, an end of season collapse led to Marquis’s absent from the postseason roster and further speculation that his inconsistencies are not something that can be resolved. Throw-in the return of Ryan Dempster to starter status after a 5-year absence due to injury/rehab and only the 2nd full-season for 28 year-old Rich Hill (2007: 11-8, 3.92), and I fully expect the Cubs to be looking for a big-time starter by July. BTW, did I mention the medical staff still hasn’t solved Carlos Zambrano’s cramping problems?

In closing, I honestly believe the Cubs have one of the fiercest line-ups in the league, but will need every bit of it to compete for the division. I also believe some early season debacles from the starting staff will be a blessing as the Cubs won’t waste time acquiring a veteran pitcher before the deadline. Especially with the 100-year curse being mentioned every time Sweet Lou gets a little too surly, this season will have all the drama that makes Wrigleyville so special…and all the hype to ensure management will make a big-time move.